Mastering SEO Projections: A Reliable Method for Future Success
Table of Contents:
- Introduction
- The Challenge of SEO Projections
- The Importance of Methodology
- The Equation for SEO Projections
- Gathering Data from Google Search Console
- Rounding Rankings and Calculating CTR
- Comparing CTR Curves for Industry Benchmarking
- Identifying Keywords to Focus On
- Segmenting Keywords with Commercial Intent
- Aggregating Keywords and Calculating Search Volume
- Building the Projection Model
- Being Conservative with Projections
- Conclusion
SEO Projections: Understanding and Calculating the Future Outcome
In the world of SEO, projections play a crucial role in providing insights and expectations for organic search efforts. However, accurately predicting these projections can be a challenging task due to the complex nature of SEO. This article aims to shed light on the importance of SEO projections, the methodology behind them, and how to calculate projections effectively.
Introduction
As an SEO professional, you're well aware of the pressure to deliver projections that accurately depict what can be expected from an SEO effort. While projections are necessary for stakeholders and decision-makers, their accuracy can often be questionable. This article will guide you through a reliable methodology for calculating SEO projections that give you a realistic understanding of what can be achieved.
The Challenge of SEO Projections
SEO projections are challenging due to the ever-changing nature of search engine algorithms and the multitude of factors that can impact rankings. Despite this uncertainty, projections are still demanded by bosses and clients. Hence, finding a methodology that strikes a balance between accuracy and feasibility becomes essential.
The Importance of Methodology
To ensure reliable projections, it is crucial to establish a sound methodology instead of relying on arbitrary estimates. A methodology based on A/B testing is ideal, as it provides more accurate results. However, there are situations where conducting A/B tests may not be feasible. In such cases, the equation outlined below can serve as a reliable alternative.
The Equation for SEO Projections
The equation for calculating SEO projections involves the following components: click-through rate (CTR), search volume, conversion rate from organic search, and average order value (for e-commerce websites). By multiplying these variables together, you can estimate the potential outcome of ranking better for a specific keyword.
Gathering Data from Google Search Console
To begin the projection process, you need to collect data from Google Search Console (GSC). It is crucial to download the CTR data specific to your unbranded search terms. Relying on anecdotal CTR data from blog posts won't accurately reflect your website's performance.
Rounding Rankings and Calculating CTR
Once you have the CTR data from GSC, round the rankings to whole numbers, as decimal points aren't valuable in this context. By pivoting the rankings against the average CTR, you can determine the average CTR for each position in the top ten. This step provides valuable insights into how your website performs in comparison to industry benchmarks.
Comparing CTR Curves for Industry Benchmarking
To further enhance your understanding, compare your website's CTR curve with industry benchmarks. Websites like Advanced Web Ranking offer CTR study data, which allows you to gauge your performance against others in your industry. This comparison enables you to identify opportunities for improvement through metadata optimization and other SEO tactics.
Identifying Keywords to Focus On
Next, narrow down your keyword set to keywords where you don't currently rank in the top 10. Tools like SEMrush or Searchmetrics can help you identify these keywords. However, it's essential to focus on keywords with a specific commercial intent to ensure the projected outcomes align with your business goals.
Segmenting Keywords with Commercial Intent
By segmenting keywords with commercial intent, you filter out non-relevant keywords that won't contribute significantly to your business results. While website traffic is valuable, prioritizing keywords that drive conversions and revenue is paramount.
Aggregating Keywords and Calculating Search Volume
Once you have your keyword set, aggregate them to determine the total search volume they generate. For example, if you have 50 keywords with an aggregate search volume of 100,000, that becomes the figure you'll use for calculating projections.
Building the Projection Model
Using the rounded rankings and CTR data, alongside the search volume, build the projection model. Multiply the CTR for each position by the search volume, and consider the conversion rate specifically from organic search. This will give you a range of projected outcomes, with lower and upper bounds, based on ranking each keyword in the top 10.
Being Conservative with Projections
While projections are valuable, it's essential to be conservative and not overpromise. Consider factors like keyword difficulty and the likelihood of ranking keywords within your SEO strategy. By setting realistic expectations, you can avoid potential disappointment and ensure the projections align with the actual outcomes.
Conclusion
Understanding and calculating SEO projections is a crucial aspect of an SEO professional's role. By following a consistent methodology and gathering accurate data, you can provide stakeholders with realistic expectations for organic search efforts. Remember to be conservative with projections and adjust them based on the specific circumstances of your SEO strategy. With reliable projections, you can navigate the ever-evolving world of SEO with confidence.
